Why One SIP Figure Isn’t Enough: Plan Your Goal for the Bad Years Too
Ask most SIP calculators how much to invest for a goal and you get one neat number. Type in the goal, the years and an expected return, and out comes a monthly figure.
That number quietly assumes something no market has ever done: the same return, every single year. Real markets have good years and bad years, and the order they come in changes where you end up.
This guide shows how the Future Goal & SIP Planner on Map My Risk handles that, using one worked example from start to finish.
Watch the one-minute guide with MIRA.
1. Meet Kavya
Kavya is saving for her daughter's higher education. Here is her goal:
| Particulars | Amount |
|---|---|
| What the goal costs today | ₹25 lakh |
| When she needs it | In 15 years |
| Already saved | ₹2 lakh |
| What it will cost in 15 years, at 6% inflation | ₹59.91 lakh |
The first step is always the same: plan for what the goal will cost when you need it, not what it costs today.
2. The Usual SIP Answer
If markets returned exactly 12% every year, Kavya would need about ₹9,600 a month. On a chart, her savings climb in a smooth curve and land exactly on the goal.
⚠️ But across 5,000 simulated markets, ₹9,600 a month reaches the goal in only 41% of them.The average-market SIP is not wrong. It is simply the SIP for an average market, and roughly half of all markets are worse than average.
3. What Are 5,000 Simulated Markets?
This is what a Monte Carlo simulation does. Instead of one smooth path, the planner plays out Kavya's 15 years 5,000 times. Each time, every month gets its own return: some months good, some bad, averaging 12% a year with the ups and downs of a typical equity portfolio (15% volatility).
🎲5,000 futuresEach one a different sequence of good and bad months.🎯Count the hitsHow many of them end at or above the goal?📊A share, not a promiseThe result tells you how often a SIP works, not whether it will.4. A SIP That Plans for the Bad Years
The planner then works backwards: what monthly SIP reaches the goal in 3 markets out of 4?
Average-market SIP₹9,600Reaches the goal in 41% of markets3-in-4 SIP₹14,900Reaches the goal in 75% of markets💡 The extra ₹5,300 a month is the price of planning for the bad years, not just the average ones.5. How to Plan Your Own Goal in 4 Steps
1Pick your goalEducation, a wedding, a home down payment, a car, retirement or your own. Each kind of cost rises at its own rate, which you can change.2Say what it costs today, when you need it, and what you've savedUse today's price. The planner grows it for you.3See the future cost and your monthly SIPBoth the average-market SIP and the SIP that works in 3 markets out of 4.4Read your verdict, and the step to takeHolds in weak markets (60% or more of markets reach the goal), Average-market plan (40% to 59%) or Underfunded (under 40%). When a plan falls short, Do this next gives the SIP that holds in 3 markets out of 4.🔍 Find Your Own SIP with Map My Risk
Work out the SIP for your goal, and how often it reaches the goal across 5,000 simulated markets. Free, no sign-up.
Find Your SIP →Plan for the Bad Years Too
One SIP figure tells you what works if everything goes to plan. Knowing how often it works tells you how much room you have when it doesn't.
🎯 Plan your goal for 3 markets out of 4, not just the average one.Map My Risk – Identify, Mitigate, Thrive.
Disclaimer: Kavya's example is illustrative. The figures are educational estimates, not investment advice, and assume 12% average annual returns with 15% volatility and 6% inflation across 5,000 simulated markets. Actual results will depend on returns, inflation, duration and individual circumstances. Returns are not guaranteed.#SIP #GoalPlanning #MonteCarlo #ChildEducation #PersonalFinance #MapMyRisk #IdentifyMitigateThrive
Related calculators
- SIP calculator for goals: Find the monthly SIP for a goal, and the SIP that works in 3 markets out of 4.